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Águilas Doradas vs Santa Fe — Primera A 2018

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
4/27/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 16Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 171+ matches

Águilas Doradas40%
×Draw28%
Santa Fe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.24
Santa Fe
1.06

Águilas Doradas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 184 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.28
Santa Fe
1.08

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.05
Santa Fe
1.20

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
69%
Águilas Doradas or Santa Fe
72%
Draw or Santa Fe
60%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
18%
Santa Fe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
71%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
35%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
13%
Santa Fe 1+ goals
65%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
29%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
56%
Santa Fe (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 171 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.20 · 184 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.28 + Santa Fe defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Santa Fe attack 1.08 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
40%
level
28%
Santa Fe scores more
31%

Águilas Doradas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Águilas Doradas 3–1 Santa Fe

Águilas Doradas beat Santa Fe 3-1 in Primera A on April 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro, Antioquia.