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Águilas Doradas vs Patriotas — Primera A 2018

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
2/22/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 8Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Águilas Doradas51%
×Draw27%
Patriotas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.46
Patriotas
0.88

Águilas Doradas creates 66% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 109 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.28
Patriotas
0.70

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.05
Patriotas
1.63

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
77%
Águilas Doradas or Patriotas
73%
Draw or Patriotas
49%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
25%
Patriotas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
77%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
43%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
18%
Patriotas 1+ goals
59%
Patriotas 2+ goals
22%
Patriotas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
69%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 171 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.28 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
51%
level
27%
Patriotas scores more
23%

Águilas Doradas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Águilas Doradas 1–0 Patriotas

Águilas Doradas beat Patriotas 1-0 in Primera A on February 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro, Antioquia.