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Águilas Doradas vs Orsomarso — Copa Colombia 2019

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
W. Morelo 76'
D. Hernandez 4'
A. J. Montano Loango 33'
6/11/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 4Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Águilas Doradas50%
×Draw31%
Orsomarso19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.17
Orsomarso
0.61

Águilas Doradas creates 92% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.00
Orsomarso
0.40

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
0.83
Orsomarso
1.33

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Orsomarso+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Orsomarso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
81%
Águilas Doradas or Orsomarso
69%
Draw or Orsomarso
50%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
22%
Orsomarso wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
69%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
33%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
11%
Orsomarso 1+ goals
46%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
13%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
72%
Orsomarso (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Orsomarso away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.00 + Orsomarso defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Orsomarso attack 0.40 + Águilas Doradas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
50%
level
31%
Orsomarso scores more
19%

Águilas Doradas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
D. Hernandez
33'
A. J. Montano Loango
54'
B. Palacios
76'
W. Morelo
87'
S. Guerra Navarro
90+5'
S. Girado
90+5'
S. Girado
Águilas
Orsomarso
Matías Jonathan Risueño Luján
Manager: Matías Jonathan Risueño Luján
Stiven Sanchez Pena
Manager: Stiven Sanchez Pena

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Orsomarso

Águilas Doradas beat Orsomarso 2-1 in Copa Colombia on June 11, 2025.

Goals: D. Hernandez (4'), A. J. Montano Loango (33'), W. Morelo (76').

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro.