Águilas Doradas 1–1 Oriente Petrolero

Águilas Doradas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oriente Petrolero

3/22/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Águilas Doradas57%

×Draw22%

Oriente Petrolero22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.14

Águilas Doradas

1.98

Oriente Petrolero

1.14

Águilas Doradas creates 74% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

0.60

1.67

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.67

Oriente Petrolero

0.60

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.67

Oriente Petrolero

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

78%

Águilas Doradas or Oriente Petrolero

78%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

43%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

33%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

86%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

59%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

31%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

68%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

32%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

72%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.67 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.98

Oriente Petrolero attack 0.60 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

57%

level

22%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

22%

Águilas Doradas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff