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Águilas Doradas vs Independiente — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente
Independiente
5/22/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundEstadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Águilas Doradas35%
×Draw24%
Independiente41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.50
Independiente
1.65

Independiente creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.67
Independiente
1.63

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.67
Independiente
1.32

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Independiente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
59%
Águilas Doradas or Independiente
76%
Draw or Independiente
65%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
17%
Independiente wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
78%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
44%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
19%
Independiente 1+ goals
81%
Independiente 2+ goals
49%
Independiente 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
46%
Independiente (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Independiente away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.67 + Independiente defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Independiente attack 1.63 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
35%
level
24%
Independiente scores more
41%

Independiente at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Independiente

Águilas Doradas beat Independiente 3-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro.