Águilas Doradas 1–0 Barranquilla: Result & Stats

Águilas Doradas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barranquilla

J. Salazar 83' (pen)

5/31/2025

Copa Colombia · 1st Round - 1Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Águilas Doradas61%

×Draw24%

Barranquilla15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchBarranquilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.67

Águilas Doradas

1.63

Barranquilla

0.67

Águilas Doradas creates 143% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

0.83

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.00

Barranquilla

0.50

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

0.83

Barranquilla

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Barranquilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Barranquilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

85%

Águilas Doradas or Barranquilla

76%

Draw or Barranquilla

39%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

33%

Barranquilla wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

80%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

48%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

22%

Barranquilla 1+ goals

49%

Barranquilla 2+ goals

15%

Barranquilla 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

80%

Barranquilla (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Barranquilla away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.00 + Barranquilla defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Barranquilla attack 0.50 + Águilas Doradas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

61%

level

24%

Barranquilla scores more

15%

Águilas Doradas at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'

J. SalazarPenalty

Águilas

Barranquilla

⚽

Manager: Matías Jonathan Risueño Luján

Águilas Doradas substitutes

EscobarPinedaAguilarSalazarCharalesBangueraLara

Manager: G. Méndez

Barranquilla substitutes

CastilloHerazoGuerreroBrausinLemusCasianiOviedo

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Barranquilla

Águilas Doradas beat Barranquilla 1-0 in Copa Colombia on May 31, 2025.

Goals: J. Salazar (83' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro.

Águilas Doradas vs Barranquilla — Copa Colombia 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Barranquilla