Águila 2–1 Chalatenango: Result & Stats

Águila

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chalatenango

4/26/2023

Primera Division · Clausura - 19Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Águila53%

×Draw24%

Chalatenango23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÁguilaExpected goals in this matchChalatenango

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.05

Águila

1.73

Chalatenango

1.05

Águila creates 65% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 74 away

1.72

creates per match

1.18

0.93

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Águila

1.72

Chalatenango

1.18

allows per match

Águila

0.93

Chalatenango

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águila+0.00on par

Chalatenango+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águila ↓

Chalatenango →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Águila or draw

77%

Águila or Chalatenango

76%

Draw or Chalatenango

47%

Winning margin

Águila wins by 2+

29%

Chalatenango wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Águila 1+ goals

82%

Águila 2+ goals

52%

Águila 3+ goals

25%

Chalatenango 1+ goals

65%

Chalatenango 2+ goals

28%

Chalatenango 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Águila (draw refunded)

70%

Chalatenango (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águila at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.93 · 156 matches

Chalatenango away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águila attack 1.72 + Chalatenango defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

Chalatenango attack 1.18 + Águila defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Águila scores more

53%

level

24%

Chalatenango scores more

23%

Águila at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Águila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff