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Águias do Moradal vs Vitoria Setubal — Taça de Portugal 2018

Águias do Moradal
Águias do Moradal
FT
0 – 5
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
10/20/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio do Ventoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Águias do Moradal13%
×Draw16%
Vitoria Setubal71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águias do Moradal
1.00
Vitoria Setubal
2.58

Vitoria Setubal creates 158% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Águias do Moradal
1.00
Vitoria Setubal
2.57

allows per match

Águias do Moradal
2.60
Vitoria Setubal
1.00

finishing

Águias do Moradal+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águias do Moradal ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Águias do Moradal or draw
29%
Águias do Moradal or Vitoria Setubal
84%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
87%

Winning margin

Águias do Moradal wins by 2+
4%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Águias do Moradal 1+ goals
63%
Águias do Moradal 2+ goals
26%
Águias do Moradal 3+ goals
8%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
92%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
72%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Águias do Moradal (draw refunded)
15%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águias do Moradal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águias do Moradal attack 1.00 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vitoria Setubal attack 2.57 + Águias do Moradal defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Águias do Moradal scores more
13%
level
16%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
71%

Vitoria Setubal at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águias do Moradal vs Vitoria Setubal

Vitoria Setubal beat Águias do Moradal 5-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Ventoso in Estreito.