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Águias do Moradal vs Vitória de Sernache — Taça de Portugal 2018

Águias do Moradal
Águias do Moradal
FT
2 – 4
Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio do Ventoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Águias do Moradal11%
×Draw16%
Vitória de Sernache73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águias do Moradal
0.83
Vitória de Sernache
2.46

Vitória de Sernache creates 196% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Águias do Moradal
1.00
Vitória de Sernache
2.33

allows per match

Águias do Moradal
2.60
Vitória de Sernache
0.67

finishing

Águias do Moradal+0.00on par
Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águias do Moradal ↓

Vitória de Sernache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Águias do Moradal or draw
27%
Águias do Moradal or Vitória de Sernache
84%
Draw or Vitória de Sernache
89%

Winning margin

Águias do Moradal wins by 2+
3%
Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Águias do Moradal 1+ goals
56%
Águias do Moradal 2+ goals
20%
Águias do Moradal 3+ goals
5%
Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
91%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
70%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Águias do Moradal (draw refunded)
13%
Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águias do Moradal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águias do Moradal attack 1.00 + Vitória de Sernache defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Vitória de Sernache attack 2.33 + Águias do Moradal defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Águias do Moradal scores more
11%
level
16%
Vitória de Sernache scores more
73%

Vitória de Sernache at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Vitória de Sernache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águias do Moradal vs Vitória de Sernache

Vitória de Sernache beat Águias do Moradal 4-2 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Ventoso in Estreito.