Águias do Moradal 0–3 Pacos Ferreira

Águias do Moradal

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Pacos Ferreira

10/17/2021

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio do Ventoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Águias do Moradal19%

×Draw20%

Pacos Ferreira61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águias do MoradalExpected goals in this matchPacos Ferreira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.17

Águias do Moradal

1.13

Pacos Ferreira

2.17

Pacos Ferreira creates 92% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.75

2.60

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Águias do Moradal

1.00

Pacos Ferreira

1.75

allows per match

Águias do Moradal

2.60

Pacos Ferreira

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águias do Moradal+0.00on par

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águias do Moradal ↓

Pacos Ferreira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Águias do Moradal or draw

39%

Águias do Moradal or Pacos Ferreira

80%

Draw or Pacos Ferreira

81%

Winning margin

Águias do Moradal wins by 2+

7%

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Águias do Moradal 1+ goals

68%

Águias do Moradal 2+ goals

31%

Águias do Moradal 3+ goals

11%

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

89%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

64%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Águias do Moradal (draw refunded)

24%

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águias do Moradal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águias do Moradal attack 1.00 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.75 + Águias do Moradal defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Águias do Moradal scores more

19%

level

20%

Pacos Ferreira scores more

61%

Pacos Ferreira at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff