Águia de Marabá 0–2 Trem: Result & Stats | Serie D

Águia de Marabá

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Trem

J. Moreira 42'

D. dos Santos Moreira 18'

5/24/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 6Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Águia de Marabá57%

×Draw23%

Trem20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águia de MarabáExpected goals in this matchTrem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.94

Águia de Marabá

1.79

Trem

0.94

Águia de Marabá creates 90% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

1.76

creates per match

1.17

0.72

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Águia de Marabá

1.76

Trem

1.17

allows per match

Águia de Marabá

0.72

Trem

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águia de Marabá+0.00on par

Trem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águia de Marabá ↓

Trem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Águia de Marabá or draw

80%

Águia de Marabá or Trem

77%

Draw or Trem

43%

Winning margin

Águia de Marabá wins by 2+

33%

Trem wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Águia de Marabá 1+ goals

83%

Águia de Marabá 2+ goals

53%

Águia de Marabá 3+ goals

26%

Trem 1+ goals

61%

Trem 2+ goals

24%

Trem 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Águia de Marabá (draw refunded)

75%

Trem (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águia de Marabá at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.72 · 29 matches

Trem away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águia de Marabá attack 1.76 + Trem defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Trem attack 1.17 + Águia de Marabá defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Águia de Marabá scores more

57%

level

23%

Trem scores more

20%

Águia de Marabá at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Águia de Marabá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

D. dos Santos Moreira

42'

J. Moreira

Águia

Trem

Manager: Sílvio Criciúma

Águia de Marabá substitutes

EdicleberFidelBastosLucãoKaiquePopeyeJúniorGuilhermeLucianoParáSamuelWelves

Manager: Sandro Macapá

Trem substitutes

RoniFabinhoMaldinniMauroRafinhaFortalezaMucajáGersonJeffersonAntônioSilvioGotinha