Águia de Marabá 3–2 Galvez: Result & Stats

Águia de Marabá

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Galvez

A. Silva 74'

PH 69'

Isaac 58'

Geovani Silva 36'

Patrick Gama 22'

4/7/2026

Copa Norte · Round 3Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Águia de Marabá52%

×Draw19%

Galvez28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águia de MarabáExpected goals in this matchGalvez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.83

Águia de Marabá

2.50

Galvez

1.83

Águia de Marabá creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

2.67

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Águia de Marabá

2.00

Galvez

1.00

allows per match

Águia de Marabá

2.67

Galvez

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águia de Marabá+0.00on par

Galvez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águia de Marabá ↓

Galvez →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Águia de Marabá or draw

72%

Águia de Marabá or Galvez

81%

Draw or Galvez

48%

Winning margin

Águia de Marabá wins by 2+

33%

Galvez wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Águia de Marabá 1+ goals

92%

Águia de Marabá 2+ goals

71%

Águia de Marabá 3+ goals

45%

Galvez 1+ goals

84%

Galvez 2+ goals

54%

Galvez 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Águia de Marabá (draw refunded)

65%

Galvez (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Águia de Marabá at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Galvez away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Águia de Marabá attack 2.00 + Galvez defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Galvez attack 1.00 + Águia de Marabá defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Águia de Marabá scores more

52%

level

19%

Galvez scores more

28%

Águia de Marabá at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Águia de Marabá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Patrick Gama

36'

Geovani Silva

58'

Isaac

69'

74'

A. Silva

Águia

Galvez

Manager: Julio Cesar Nunes

Manager: Celio