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Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Maccabi Shaarayim — League #496 2026

Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maccabi Shaarayim
Maccabi Shaarayim
B. Avitar 82'
S. Ohana 80'
Y. Aspa 33'
3/12/2025League #496League #496 · South - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod45%
×Draw28%
Maccabi Shaarayim27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.32
Maccabi Shaarayim
0.97

Agudat Sport Ashdod creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

creates per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.23
Maccabi Shaarayim
1.09

allows per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
0.85
Maccabi Shaarayim
1.41

finishing

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par
Maccabi Shaarayim+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agudat Sport Ashdod ↓

Maccabi Shaarayim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Agudat Sport Ashdod or draw
73%
Agudat Sport Ashdod or Maccabi Shaarayim
72%
Draw or Maccabi Shaarayim
55%

Winning margin

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
21%
Maccabi Shaarayim wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
73%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
38%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
15%
Maccabi Shaarayim 1+ goals
62%
Maccabi Shaarayim 2+ goals
25%
Maccabi Shaarayim 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
62%
Maccabi Shaarayim (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agudat Sport Ashdod at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Maccabi Shaarayim away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.23 + Maccabi Shaarayim defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Maccabi Shaarayim attack 1.09 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
45%
level
28%
Maccabi Shaarayim scores more
27%

Agudat Sport Ashdod at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Agudat Sport Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Y. Aspa
79'
R. Yaacov
80'
S. Ohana
82'
B. Avitar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Maccabi Shaarayim

Agudat Sport Ashdod beat Maccabi Shaarayim 3-0 in League #496 on March 12, 2025.

Goals: Y. Aspa (33'), S. Ohana (80'), B. Avitar (82').