Agudat Sport Ashdod 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Agudat Sport Ashdod

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Maccabi Petah Tikva

I. Dahan 38'

L. Biton 12'

I. Shkurin 15'

11/11/2022

Liga Leumit · Round 13Yud-Alef Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod29%

×Draw24%

Maccabi Petah Tikva46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Agudat Sport AshdodExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.65

Agudat Sport Ashdod

1.26

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.65

Maccabi Petah Tikva creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 39 away

1.42

creates per match

2.03

1.28

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod

1.42

Maccabi Petah Tikva

2.03

allows per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod

1.28

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agudat Sport Ashdod ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Agudat Sport Ashdod or draw

54%

Agudat Sport Ashdod or Maccabi Petah Tikva

76%

Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva

71%

Winning margin

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+

12%

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals

72%

Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals

36%

Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals

13%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals

81%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals

49%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)

39%

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agudat Sport Ashdod at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.42 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 2.03 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more

29%

level

24%

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more

46%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

15'

38'

46'

58'

73'

I. Cohen← T. Ben Chaim

73'

75'

79'

82'

87'

90+5'

Agudat

Maccabi

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Dahan

▼

Livnat

Manager: D. Revivo

79'▲S. Weisz←▼G. Asulin

87'▲I. Shukron←▼I. Dahan

90+5'▲L. Revivo←▼N. Livnat

Agudat Sport Ashdod substitutes

WeiszShukronRevivoShabiCohenCohenMeirZaguri

Manager: S. Barda

46'▲G. Kolany←▼A. Lugasi

58'▲D. Bitton←▼G. Akawa

73'▲I. Cohen←▼T. Ben Chaim

73'▲S. Daniel←▼T. Levi

82'▲A. Altury←▼I. Gorno

Maccabi Petah Tikva substitutes

KolanyBittonCohenDanielAlturyVrgočOzeriWolffCohen

Liga Leumit: Agudat Sport Ashdod 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Agudat Sport Ashdod beat Maccabi Petah Tikva 2-1 in Liga Leumit on November 11, 2022.

Goals: L. Biton (12'), I. Shkurin (15'), I. Dahan (38').

The match was played at Yud-Alef Stadium in Ashdod.

Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Maccabi Petah Tikva — Liga Leumit 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga Leumit: Agudat Sport Ashdod 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva