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Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Hapoel Mahane Yehuda — State Cup 2019

Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
11/11/2024State CupState Cup · 6th RoundAshdod Senti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod42%
×Draw23%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.69
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1.50

Agudat Sport Ashdod creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.50
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
2.00

allows per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.00
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1.88

finishing

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agudat Sport Ashdod ↓

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Agudat Sport Ashdod or draw
66%
Agudat Sport Ashdod or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
77%
Draw or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
58%

Winning margin

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
22%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
82%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
50%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
24%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1+ goals
78%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2+ goals
44%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
55%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agudat Sport Ashdod at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.50 + Hapoel Mahane Yehuda defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda attack 2.00 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
42%
level
23%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda scores more
34%

Agudat Sport Ashdod at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Agudat Sport Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

Agudat Sport Ashdod beat Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1-0 in State Cup on November 11, 2024.

The match was played at Ashdod Senti in Ashdod.