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Aguai U20 vs Mirassol U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Aguai U20
Aguai U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
Unknown 88'
Gui Siveira 90'
L. Leonardi Bortoluci Perez 70'
4/25/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Dr. Leonardo Guaranha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aguai U2031%
×Draw25%
Mirassol U2044%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aguai U20
1.22
Mirassol U20
1.51

Mirassol U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

creates per match

Aguai U20
0.89
Mirassol U20
1.91

allows per match

Aguai U20
1.11
Mirassol U20
1.55

finishing

Aguai U20+0.00on par
Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aguai U20 ↓

Mirassol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aguai U20 or draw
56%
Aguai U20 or Mirassol U20
75%
Draw or Mirassol U20
69%

Winning margin

Aguai U20 wins by 2+
13%
Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Aguai U20 1+ goals
70%
Aguai U20 2+ goals
34%
Aguai U20 3+ goals
12%
Mirassol U20 1+ goals
78%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
44%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)
41%
Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aguai U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Mirassol U20 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aguai U20 attack 0.89 + Mirassol U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mirassol U20 attack 1.91 + Aguai U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aguai U20 scores more
31%
level
25%
Mirassol U20 scores more
44%

Mirassol U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
L. Leonardi Bortoluci Perez
88'
90'
Gui Siveira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aguai U20 vs Mirassol U20

Mirassol U20 beat Aguai U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 25, 2025.

Goals: L. Leonardi Bortoluci Perez (70'), ? (88'), Gui Siveira (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Leonardo Guaranha in Aguaí, São Paulo.