Aguai U20 2–3 Bandeirante U20: Result & Stats

Aguai U20

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Bandeirante U20

Unknown 21', 19'

Unknown 79', 68', 10'

7/24/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aguai U2045%

×Draw27%

Bandeirante U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aguai U20Expected goals in this matchBandeirante U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Aguai U20

1.42

Bandeirante U20

1.06

Aguai U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

0.89

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Aguai U20

0.89

Bandeirante U20

1.00

allows per match

Aguai U20

1.11

Bandeirante U20

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aguai U20+0.00on par

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aguai U20 ↓

Bandeirante U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aguai U20 or draw

72%

Aguai U20 or Bandeirante U20

73%

Draw or Bandeirante U20

55%

Winning margin

Aguai U20 wins by 2+

22%

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aguai U20 1+ goals

76%

Aguai U20 2+ goals

41%

Aguai U20 3+ goals

17%

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals

65%

Bandeirante U20 2+ goals

29%

Bandeirante U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aguai U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Bandeirante U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aguai U20 attack 0.89 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.00 + Aguai U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aguai U20 scores more

45%

level

27%

Bandeirante U20 scores more

28%

Aguai U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aguai U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

19'

21'

68'

79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff