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Água Santa U20 vs Sertãozinho U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
Kauan 66'
7/25/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Distrital do Jardim Inamar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Água Santa U2053%
×Draw24%
Sertãozinho U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Água Santa U20
1.75
Sertãozinho U20
1.09

Água Santa U20 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Água Santa U20
1.53
Sertãozinho U20
1.13

allows per match

Água Santa U20
1.06
Sertãozinho U20
1.96

finishing

Água Santa U20+0.00on par
Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Água Santa U20 ↓

Sertãozinho U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Água Santa U20 or draw
76%
Água Santa U20 or Sertãozinho U20
76%
Draw or Sertãozinho U20
47%

Winning margin

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
29%
Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Água Santa U20 1+ goals
83%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
52%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
25%
Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
66%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
30%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
69%
Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Sertãozinho U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sertãozinho U20 attack 1.13 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Água Santa U20 scores more
53%
level
24%
Sertãozinho U20 scores more
24%

Água Santa U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
Kauan
78'
G. Henrique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Água Santa U20 vs Sertãozinho U20

Sertãozinho U20 beat Água Santa U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 25, 2025.

Goals: Kauan (66').

The match was played at Estádio Distrital do Jardim Inamar in São Paulo, São Paulo.