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Água Santa U20 vs Rio Claro SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rio Claro SP U20
Rio Claro SP U20
L. Costa 65'
Filipe Dahora 49'
C. C. Jairkon M. 16', 8' (pen)
G. Santos 26'
5/2/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Distrital do Jardim Inamar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Água Santa U2067%
×Draw19%
Rio Claro SP U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Água Santa U20
2.27
Rio Claro SP U20
0.96

Água Santa U20 creates 136% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Água Santa U20
1.53
Rio Claro SP U20
0.85

allows per match

Água Santa U20
1.06
Rio Claro SP U20
3.00

finishing

Água Santa U20+0.00on par
Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Água Santa U20 ↓

Rio Claro SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Água Santa U20 or draw
85%
Água Santa U20 or Rio Claro SP U20
81%
Draw or Rio Claro SP U20
33%

Winning margin

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
43%
Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Água Santa U20 1+ goals
90%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
66%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
39%
Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals
62%
Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals
25%
Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
82%
Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Rio Claro SP U20 away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 0.85 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Água Santa U20 scores more
67%
level
19%
Rio Claro SP U20 scores more
15%

Água Santa U20 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
C. C. Jairkon M.Penalty
16'
C. C. Jairkon M.
26'
G. Santos
49'
Filipe Dahora
51'
M. Pires de Souza
65'
L. Costa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Água Santa U20 vs Rio Claro SP U20

Água Santa U20 beat Rio Claro SP U20 4-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 2, 2025.

Goals: C. C. Jairkon M. (8' pen, 16'), G. Santos (26'), Filipe Dahora (49'), L. Costa (65').

The match was played at Estádio Distrital do Jardim Inamar in São Paulo, São Paulo.