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Água Santa U20 vs Palmeiras U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
Preview
18:00
Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
9/4/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 14
48%
Palmeiras U20
model favours
27%25%48%

Palmeiras U20 have scored in 23 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Água Santa U2027%
×Draw25%
Palmeiras U2048%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Água Santa U20
1.14
Palmeiras U20
1.60

Palmeiras U20 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Água Santa U20
1.53
Palmeiras U20
2.15

allows per match

Água Santa U20
1.06
Palmeiras U20
0.74

finishing

Água Santa U20+0.00on par
Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Água Santa U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Água Santa U20 or draw
52%
Água Santa U20 or Palmeiras U20
75%
Draw or Palmeiras U20
73%

Winning margin

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
11%
Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Água Santa U20 1+ goals
68%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
32%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
11%
Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
80%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
47%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
36%
Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.14

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.15 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Água Santa U20 scores more
27%
level
25%
Palmeiras U20 scores more
48%

Palmeiras U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Palmeiras U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Both teams score in 70% of Água Santa U20’s matches
  • 65% of Palmeiras U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 65% over 2.5)
  • Água Santa U20 sit 5, Palmeiras U20 17 in the table
  • 31% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DWWDL
U20
DDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Água Santa U20 host Palmeiras U20

September 4, 2026: Água Santa U20 take on Palmeiras U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.