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Água Santa U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
Unknown 90+5', 28'
K. Chaudar 88'
Iuri Carvalho 60' (pen)
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Água Santa U2044%
×Draw26%
EC São Bernardo U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Água Santa U20
1.42
EC São Bernardo U20
1.10

Água Santa U20 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Água Santa U20
1.53
EC São Bernardo U20
1.15

allows per match

Água Santa U20
1.06
EC São Bernardo U20
1.30

finishing

Água Santa U20+0.00on par
EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Água Santa U20 ↓

EC São Bernardo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Água Santa U20 or draw
71%
Água Santa U20 or EC São Bernardo U20
74%
Draw or EC São Bernardo U20
56%

Winning margin

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
21%
EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Água Santa U20 1+ goals
76%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
41%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
17%
EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
67%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
30%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
60%
EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

EC São Bernardo U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.15 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Água Santa U20 scores more
44%
level
26%
EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
29%

Água Santa U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
60'
Iuri CarvalhoPenalty
88'
K. Chaudar
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Água Santa U20 2–2 EC São Bernardo U20

Água Santa U20 and EC São Bernardo U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: ? (28', 90+5'), Iuri Carvalho (60' pen), K. Chaudar (88').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo.