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Agrupación Estudiantil vs Ourense CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ourense CF
Ourense CF
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 3Estatio Municipal de Santa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Agrupación Estudiantil30%
×Draw25%
Ourense CF45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.27
Ourense CF
1.61

Ourense CF creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.53
Ourense CF
1.47

allows per match

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.76
Ourense CF
1.02

finishing

Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par
Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agrupación Estudiantil ↓

Ourense CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Agrupación Estudiantil or draw
55%
Agrupación Estudiantil or Ourense CF
75%
Draw or Ourense CF
70%

Winning margin

Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
13%
Ourense CF wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
72%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
36%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
14%
Ourense CF 1+ goals
80%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
48%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
40%
Ourense CF (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agrupación Estudiantil at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.53 + Ourense CF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ourense CF attack 1.47 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
30%
level
25%
Ourense CF scores more
45%

Ourense CF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Agrupación Estudiantil vs Ourense CF

Ourense CF beat Agrupación Estudiantil 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estatio Municipal de Santa Isabel in Santiago de Compostela.