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Agrupación Estudiantil vs Bergantiños — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bergantiños
Bergantiños
12/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estatio Municipal de Santa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Agrupación Estudiantil30%
×Draw25%
Bergantiños44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.23
Bergantiños
1.54

Bergantiños creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

creates per match

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.53
Bergantiños
1.32

allows per match

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.76
Bergantiños
0.93

finishing

Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par
Bergantiños+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agrupación Estudiantil ↓

Bergantiños →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Agrupación Estudiantil or draw
56%
Agrupación Estudiantil or Bergantiños
75%
Draw or Bergantiños
70%

Winning margin

Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
13%
Bergantiños wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
71%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
35%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
13%
Bergantiños 1+ goals
79%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
45%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
41%
Bergantiños (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agrupación Estudiantil at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Bergantiños away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.53 + Bergantiños defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bergantiños attack 1.32 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
30%
level
25%
Bergantiños scores more
44%

Bergantiños at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Agrupación Estudiantil vs Bergantiños

Bergantiños beat Agrupación Estudiantil 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estatio Municipal de Santa Isabel in Santiago de Compostela.