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Agrupación Estudiantil vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Barco
Barco
6/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 10Estatio Municipal de Santa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Agrupación Estudiantil38%
×Draw25%
Barco38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.48
Barco
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

creates per match

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.53
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.76
Barco
1.42

finishing

Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agrupación Estudiantil ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Agrupación Estudiantil or draw
62%
Agrupación Estudiantil or Barco
75%
Draw or Barco
62%

Winning margin

Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
18%
Barco wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
77%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
43%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
19%
Barco 1+ goals
77%
Barco 2+ goals
43%
Barco 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
50%
Barco (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agrupación Estudiantil at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.53 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Barco attack 1.21 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
38%
level
25%
Barco scores more
38%

Agrupación Estudiantil at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Agrupación Estudiantil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Agrupación Estudiantil 0–2 Barco

Barco beat Agrupación Estudiantil 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estatio Municipal de Santa Isabel in Santiago de Compostela.