Agrimaq 4–0 Jacyobá: Result & Stats | Alagoano - 2

Agrimaq

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Jacyobá

A. dos Santos 35', 5'

Jadson 30'

C. Eduardo Neves da Silva 26'

8/27/2025

Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Manoel Ferreira de Amorim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Agrimaq74%

×Draw16%

Jacyobá9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AgrimaqExpected goals in this matchJacyobá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.71

Agrimaq

2.38

Jacyobá

0.71

Agrimaq creates 235% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.75

creates per match

0.17

1.25

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Agrimaq

1.75

Jacyobá

0.17

allows per match

Agrimaq

1.25

Jacyobá

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Agrimaq+0.00on par

Jacyobá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agrimaq ↓

Jacyobá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Agrimaq or draw

91%

Agrimaq or Jacyobá

84%

Draw or Jacyobá

26%

Winning margin

Agrimaq wins by 2+

51%

Jacyobá wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Agrimaq 1+ goals

91%

Agrimaq 2+ goals

68%

Agrimaq 3+ goals

42%

Jacyobá 1+ goals

51%

Jacyobá 2+ goals

16%

Jacyobá 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Agrimaq (draw refunded)

89%

Jacyobá (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agrimaq at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Jacyobá away — creates 0.17, concedes 3.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agrimaq attack 1.75 + Jacyobá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Jacyobá attack 0.17 + Agrimaq defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Agrimaq scores more

74%

level

16%

Jacyobá scores more

9%

Agrimaq at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Agrimaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

A. dos Santos

26'

C. Eduardo Neves da Silva

30'

Jadson

35'

A. dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff