Ağrı 1970 1–2 Yeni Orduspor: Result & Stats

Ağrı 1970

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Yeni Orduspor

10/22/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundVali Lütfü Yiğenoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ağrı 197065%

×Draw19%

Yeni Orduspor16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ağrı 1970Expected goals in this matchYeni Orduspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.10

Ağrı 1970

2.35

Yeni Orduspor

1.10

Ağrı 1970 creates 114% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

2.80

creates per match

1.40

0.80

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Ağrı 1970

2.80

Yeni Orduspor

1.40

allows per match

Ağrı 1970

0.80

Yeni Orduspor

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ağrı 1970+0.00on par

Yeni Orduspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ağrı 1970 ↓

Yeni Orduspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ağrı 1970 or draw

84%

Ağrı 1970 or Yeni Orduspor

81%

Draw or Yeni Orduspor

35%

Winning margin

Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+

42%

Yeni Orduspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ağrı 1970 1+ goals

90%

Ağrı 1970 2+ goals

68%

Ağrı 1970 3+ goals

41%

Yeni Orduspor 1+ goals

67%

Yeni Orduspor 2+ goals

30%

Yeni Orduspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)

80%

Yeni Orduspor (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ağrı 1970 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Yeni Orduspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ağrı 1970 attack 2.80 + Yeni Orduspor defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.35

Yeni Orduspor attack 1.40 + Ağrı 1970 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ağrı 1970 scores more

65%

level

19%

Yeni Orduspor scores more

16%

Ağrı 1970 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ağrı 1970 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff