Ağrı 1970 4–1 Batman Petrolspor: Result & Stats

Ağrı 1970

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Batman Petrolspor

9/16/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundVali Lütfü Yiğenoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ağrı 197062%

×Draw21%

Batman Petrolspor17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ağrı 1970Expected goals in this matchBatman Petrolspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.98

Ağrı 1970

2.06

Batman Petrolspor

0.98

Ağrı 1970 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.80

creates per match

1.17

0.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ağrı 1970

2.80

Batman Petrolspor

1.17

allows per match

Ağrı 1970

0.80

Batman Petrolspor

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ağrı 1970+0.00on par

Batman Petrolspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ağrı 1970 ↓

Batman Petrolspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ağrı 1970 or draw

83%

Ağrı 1970 or Batman Petrolspor

79%

Draw or Batman Petrolspor

38%

Winning margin

Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+

38%

Batman Petrolspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ağrı 1970 1+ goals

87%

Ağrı 1970 2+ goals

61%

Ağrı 1970 3+ goals

34%

Batman Petrolspor 1+ goals

62%

Batman Petrolspor 2+ goals

26%

Batman Petrolspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)

78%

Batman Petrolspor (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ağrı 1970 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Batman Petrolspor away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ağrı 1970 attack 2.80 + Batman Petrolspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Batman Petrolspor attack 1.17 + Ağrı 1970 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ağrı 1970 scores more

62%

level

21%

Batman Petrolspor scores more

17%

Ağrı 1970 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ağrı 1970 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff