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Ağrı 1970 vs Artvin Hopaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Ağrı 1970
Ağrı 1970
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Artvin Hopaspor
Artvin Hopaspor
9/11/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundVali Lütfü Yiğenoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ağrı 197080%
×Draw14%
Artvin Hopaspor6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ağrı 1970
2.52
Artvin Hopaspor
0.53

Ağrı 1970 creates 375% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ağrı 1970
2.80
Artvin Hopaspor
0.25

allows per match

Ağrı 1970
0.80
Artvin Hopaspor
2.25

finishing

Ağrı 1970+0.00on par
Artvin Hopaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ağrı 1970 ↓

Artvin Hopaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ağrı 1970 or draw
94%
Ağrı 1970 or Artvin Hopaspor
86%
Draw or Artvin Hopaspor
20%

Winning margin

Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+
58%
Artvin Hopaspor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ağrı 1970 1+ goals
92%
Ağrı 1970 2+ goals
71%
Ağrı 1970 3+ goals
45%
Artvin Hopaspor 1+ goals
41%
Artvin Hopaspor 2+ goals
10%
Artvin Hopaspor 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)
93%
Artvin Hopaspor (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ağrı 1970 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Artvin Hopaspor away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ağrı 1970 attack 2.80 + Artvin Hopaspor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.52

Artvin Hopaspor attack 0.25 + Ağrı 1970 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Ağrı 1970 scores more
80%
level
14%
Artvin Hopaspor scores more
6%

Ağrı 1970 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Ağrı 1970 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Ağrı 1970 2–2 Artvin Hopaspor

Ağrı 1970 and Artvin Hopaspor drew 2-2 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2019.

The match was played at Vali Lütfü Yiğenoğlu Stadyumu in Ağrı.