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Łagów vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Łagów
Łagów
FT
0 – 3
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
11/22/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Łagów51%
×Draw22%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łagów
1.93
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.33

Łagów creates 45% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 37 away

creates per match

Łagów
1.78
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.38

allows per match

Łagów
1.28
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
2.08

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Łagów or draw
74%
Łagów or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
78%
Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
49%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+
29%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals
85%
Łagów 2+ goals
57%
Łagów 3+ goals
30%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
74%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
38%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)
66%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.93

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Łagów scores more
51%
level
22%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
26%

Łagów at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Łagów vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska beat Łagów 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion w Łagówie in Łagów.