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Łagów vs Wisła Puławy — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Łagów
Łagów
FT
1 – 3
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
9/27/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Łagów28%
×Draw24%
Wisła Puławy48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łagów
1.22
Wisła Puławy
1.69

Wisła Puławy creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 20 away

creates per match

Łagów
1.78
Wisła Puławy
2.10

allows per match

Łagów
1.28
Wisła Puławy
0.65

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Łagów or draw
52%
Łagów or Wisła Puławy
76%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
72%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+
11%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals
70%
Łagów 2+ goals
34%
Łagów 3+ goals
12%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
82%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
50%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)
36%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.22

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Łagów scores more
28%
level
24%
Wisła Puławy scores more
48%

Wisła Puławy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Łagów vs Wisła Puławy

Wisła Puławy beat Łagów 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion w Łagówie in Łagów.