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Łagów vs Stal Stalowa Wola — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Łagów
Łagów
FT
1 – 4
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
11/29/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów36%
×Draw25%
Stal Stalowa Wola39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łagów
1.43
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 54 away

creates per match

Łagów
1.78
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.74

allows per match

Łagów
1.28
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.07

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Łagów or draw
61%
Łagów or Stal Stalowa Wola
75%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
64%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+
17%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals
76%
Łagów 2+ goals
42%
Łagów 3+ goals
17%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
78%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
44%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)
48%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Łagów scores more
36%
level
25%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
39%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Łagów 1–4 Stal Stalowa Wola

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Łagów 4-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion w Łagówie in Łagów.