Łagów 4–1 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski: Result & Stats

Łagów

FT

4 – 1

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

10/11/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów50%

×Draw23%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁagówExpected goals in this matchOrlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.29

Łagów

1.83

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.29

Łagów creates 42% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 70 away

1.78

creates per match

1.30

1.28

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Łagów

1.78

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.30

allows per match

Łagów

1.28

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Łagów or draw

73%

Łagów or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

77%

Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

50%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+

28%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals

84%

Łagów 2+ goals

54%

Łagów 3+ goals

28%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals

72%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals

37%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)

65%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Łagów scores more

50%

level

23%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more

27%

Łagów at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff