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Łagów vs Avia Świdnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Łagów
Łagów
FT
2 – 0
Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
9/4/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów35%
×Draw24%
Avia Świdnik41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łagów
1.45
Avia Świdnik
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 104 away

creates per match

Łagów
1.78
Avia Świdnik
1.89

allows per match

Łagów
1.28
Avia Świdnik
1.12

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par
Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Avia Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Łagów or draw
59%
Łagów or Avia Świdnik
76%
Draw or Avia Świdnik
65%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+
16%
Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals
77%
Łagów 2+ goals
42%
Łagów 3+ goals
18%
Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
79%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
47%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)
46%
Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.45

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Łagów scores more
35%
level
24%
Avia Świdnik scores more
41%

Avia Świdnik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Łagów 2–0 Avia Świdnik

Łagów beat Avia Świdnik 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion w Łagówie in Łagów.