Agoncillo 2–0 Peña Balsamaiso: Result & Stats

Agoncillo

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Peña Balsamaiso

2/11/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 20Estadio San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Agoncillo51%

×Draw25%

Peña Balsamaiso24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AgoncilloExpected goals in this matchPeña Balsamaiso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.06

Agoncillo

1.65

Peña Balsamaiso

1.06

Agoncillo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 66 away

1.38

creates per match

0.97

1.15

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Agoncillo

1.38

Peña Balsamaiso

0.97

allows per match

Agoncillo

1.15

Peña Balsamaiso

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Agoncillo+0.00on par

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agoncillo ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Agoncillo or draw

76%

Agoncillo or Peña Balsamaiso

75%

Draw or Peña Balsamaiso

49%

Winning margin

Agoncillo wins by 2+

27%

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+

Team goals

Agoncillo 1+ goals

81%

Agoncillo 2+ goals

49%

Agoncillo 3+ goals

23%

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals

65%

Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals

29%

Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Agoncillo (draw refunded)

68%

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Agoncillo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.15 · 79 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Agoncillo attack 1.38 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Agoncillo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Agoncillo scores more

51%

level

25%

Peña Balsamaiso scores more

24%

Agoncillo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Agoncillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Agoncillo 2–0 Peña Balsamaiso

Agoncillo beat Peña Balsamaiso 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Roque in Agoncillo.

Agoncillo vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Agoncillo 2–0 Peña Balsamaiso