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Agoncillo vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Agoncillo
Agoncillo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
La Calzada
La Calzada
3/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 25Estadio San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Agoncillo43%
×Draw26%
La Calzada31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agoncillo
1.42
La Calzada
1.17

Agoncillo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 108 away

creates per match

Agoncillo
1.38
La Calzada
1.19

allows per match

Agoncillo
1.15
La Calzada
1.47

finishing

Agoncillo+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agoncillo ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Agoncillo or draw
69%
Agoncillo or La Calzada
74%
Draw or La Calzada
57%

Winning margin

Agoncillo wins by 2+
20%
La Calzada wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Agoncillo 1+ goals
76%
Agoncillo 2+ goals
41%
Agoncillo 3+ goals
17%
La Calzada 1+ goals
69%
La Calzada 2+ goals
33%
La Calzada 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Agoncillo (draw refunded)
58%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agoncillo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.15 · 79 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agoncillo attack 1.38 + La Calzada defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

La Calzada attack 1.19 + Agoncillo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Agoncillo scores more
43%
level
26%
La Calzada scores more
31%

Agoncillo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Agoncillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Agoncillo 2 – 1 La Calzada

Agoncillo beat La Calzada 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Roque in Agoncillo.