Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Agoncillo vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Agoncillo
Agoncillo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
10/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Agoncillo42%
×Draw25%
Casalarreina32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agoncillo
1.48
Casalarreina
1.25

Agoncillo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 91 away

creates per match

Agoncillo
1.38
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

Agoncillo
1.15
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

Agoncillo+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agoncillo ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Agoncillo or draw
68%
Agoncillo or Casalarreina
75%
Draw or Casalarreina
58%

Winning margin

Agoncillo wins by 2+
21%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Agoncillo 1+ goals
77%
Agoncillo 2+ goals
43%
Agoncillo 3+ goals
19%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
71%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
36%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Agoncillo (draw refunded)
57%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agoncillo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.15 · 79 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agoncillo attack 1.38 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Agoncillo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Agoncillo scores more
42%
level
25%
Casalarreina scores more
32%

Agoncillo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Agoncillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Agoncillo vs Casalarreina

Agoncillo and Casalarreina drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Roque in Agoncillo.