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AGF W vs Thy ThistedQ W — Kvindeliga 2019

AGF W
AGF W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Thy ThistedQ W
Thy ThistedQ W
10/29/2022KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 10Ceres Park & Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

AGF W45%
×Draw23%
Thy ThistedQ W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AGF W
1.82
Thy ThistedQ W
1.50

AGF W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

creates per match

AGF W
1.33
Thy ThistedQ W
1.33

allows per match

AGF W
1.68
Thy ThistedQ W
2.31

finishing

AGF W+0.00on par
Thy ThistedQ W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AGF W ↓

Thy ThistedQ W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

AGF W or draw
68%
AGF W or Thy ThistedQ W
77%
Draw or Thy ThistedQ W
55%

Winning margin

AGF W wins by 2+
24%
Thy ThistedQ W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AGF W 1+ goals
84%
AGF W 2+ goals
54%
AGF W 3+ goals
27%
Thy ThistedQ W 1+ goals
78%
Thy ThistedQ W 2+ goals
44%
Thy ThistedQ W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

AGF W (draw refunded)
59%
Thy ThistedQ W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AGF W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 57 matches

Thy ThistedQ W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.31 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AGF W attack 1.33 + Thy ThistedQ W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.82

Thy ThistedQ W attack 1.33 + AGF W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AGF W scores more
45%
level
23%
Thy ThistedQ W scores more
32%

AGF W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AGF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: AGF W 6–1 Thy ThistedQ W

AGF W beat Thy ThistedQ W 6-1 in Kvindeliga on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Ceres Park & Arena in Århus.