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AG Caennaise vs Orleans — Coupe de France 2018

AG Caennaise
AG Caennaise
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Orleans
Orleans
11/17/2018Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade de Venoix - Claude-Mercier (Caen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AG Caennaise12%
×Draw23%
Orleans65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AG Caennaise
0.57
Orleans
1.72

Orleans creates 202% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

AG Caennaise
0.50
Orleans
2.18

allows per match

AG Caennaise
1.25
Orleans
0.64

finishing

AG Caennaise+0.00on par
Orleans+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AG Caennaise ↓

Orleans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–117%
0–215%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AG Caennaise or draw
35%
AG Caennaise or Orleans
77%
Draw or Orleans
88%

Winning margin

AG Caennaise wins by 2+
3%
Orleans wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

AG Caennaise 1+ goals
43%
AG Caennaise 2+ goals
11%
AG Caennaise 3+ goals
2%
Orleans 1+ goals
82%
Orleans 2+ goals
51%
Orleans 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

AG Caennaise (draw refunded)
15%
Orleans (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AG Caennaise at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Orleans away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AG Caennaise attack 0.50 + Orleans defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.57

Orleans attack 2.18 + AG Caennaise defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

AG Caennaise scores more
12%
level
23%
Orleans scores more
65%

Orleans at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Orleans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: AG Caennaise 0–2 Orleans

Orleans beat AG Caennaise 2-0 in Coupe de France on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de Venoix - Claude-Mercier (Caen).