AG Caennaise 0–1 Guingamp: Result & Stats

AG Caennaise

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guingamp

12/9/2023

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Michel d'Ornano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AG Caennaise13%

×Draw20%

Guingamp67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AG CaennaiseExpected goals in this matchGuingamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

2.05

AG Caennaise

0.79

Guingamp

2.05

Guingamp creates 159% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

0.50

creates per match

2.85

1.25

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

AG Caennaise

0.50

Guingamp

2.85

allows per match

AG Caennaise

1.25

Guingamp

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AG Caennaise+0.00on par

Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AG Caennaise ↓

Guingamp →

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AG Caennaise or draw

33%

AG Caennaise or Guingamp

80%

Draw or Guingamp

87%

Winning margin

AG Caennaise wins by 2+

Guingamp wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

AG Caennaise 1+ goals

55%

AG Caennaise 2+ goals

19%

AG Caennaise 3+ goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

87%

Guingamp 2+ goals

61%

Guingamp 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

AG Caennaise (draw refunded)

17%

Guingamp (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AG Caennaise at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Guingamp away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AG Caennaise attack 0.50 + Guingamp defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.79

Guingamp attack 2.85 + AG Caennaise defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

AG Caennaise scores more

13%

level

20%

Guingamp scores more

67%

Guingamp at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff