AG Caennaise 0–1 Châteaubriant: Result & Stats

AG Caennaise

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Châteaubriant

2/7/2021

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade de Venoix - Claude-Mercier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AG Caennaise9%

×Draw25%

Châteaubriant66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AG CaennaiseExpected goals in this matchChâteaubriant

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.38

1.50

AG Caennaise

0.38

Châteaubriant

1.50

Châteaubriant creates 295% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.50

creates per match

1.75

1.25

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

AG Caennaise

0.50

Châteaubriant

1.75

allows per match

AG Caennaise

1.25

Châteaubriant

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AG Caennaise+0.00on par

Châteaubriant+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AG Caennaise ↓

Châteaubriant →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–123%

0–217%

0–39%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

AG Caennaise or draw

34%

AG Caennaise or Châteaubriant

75%

Draw or Châteaubriant

91%

Winning margin

AG Caennaise wins by 2+

2%

Châteaubriant wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

AG Caennaise 1+ goals

32%

AG Caennaise 2+ goals

6%

AG Caennaise 3+ goals

1%

Châteaubriant 1+ goals

78%

Châteaubriant 2+ goals

44%

Châteaubriant 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

AG Caennaise (draw refunded)

12%

Châteaubriant (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AG Caennaise at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Châteaubriant away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AG Caennaise attack 0.50 + Châteaubriant defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.38

Châteaubriant attack 1.75 + AG Caennaise defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

AG Caennaise scores more

9%

level

25%

Châteaubriant scores more

66%

Châteaubriant at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Châteaubriant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff