Afturelding 1–3 Valur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Afturelding

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Valur Reykjavik

A. Jónasson 21'

A. Pálsson 65'

A. Jóhannsson 32'

J. Jónsson 8'

5/17/2024

Cup · Round of 16Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Afturelding55%

×Draw19%

Valur Reykjavik27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AftureldingExpected goals in this matchValur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.77

Afturelding

2.56

Valur Reykjavik

1.77

Afturelding creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

3.33

creates per match

2.20

1.33

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Afturelding

3.33

Valur Reykjavik

2.20

allows per match

Afturelding

1.33

Valur Reykjavik

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Valur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw

73%

Afturelding or Valur Reykjavik

81%

Draw or Valur Reykjavik

45%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+

35%

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals

92%

Afturelding 2+ goals

72%

Afturelding 3+ goals

46%

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

83%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

53%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)

67%

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Valur Reykjavik away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 3.33 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.56

Valur Reykjavik attack 2.20 + Afturelding defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Afturelding scores more

55%

level

19%

Valur Reykjavik scores more

27%

Afturelding at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Jónsson

21'

A. Jónasson

31'

K. Hlífarsson← H. Magnússon

32'

A. Jóhannsson

34'

H. Eyjolfsson

53'

B. Antonsson Duffield

55'

L. Heimisson← B. Antonsson

59'

B. Saevarsson

59'

T. Haraldsson← P. Pedersen

65'

A. Pálsson

74'

P. Guðjónsson← A. Jónasson

74'

S. Hugason← A. Jóhannsson

79'

G. Tryggvason← A. Pálsson

79'

H. Gunnarsson← B. Sævarsson

90+2'

B. Runólfsson← G. Bjarnason

90+2'

S. Pálsson← B. Barkarson

Afturelding

Valur

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Jónasson

Manager: M. Einarsson

31'▲K. Hlífarsson←▼H. Magnússon

74'▲P. Guðjónsson←▼A. Jónasson

74'▲S. Hugason←▼A. Jóhannsson

90+2'▲B. Runólfsson←▼G. Bjarnason

90+2'▲S. Pálsson←▼B. Barkarson

Afturelding substitutes

HlífarssonGuðjónssonHugasonRunólfssonPálssonHaraldssonSvansson

Manager: A. Grétarsson

55'▲L. Heimisson←▼B. Antonsson

59'▲T. Haraldsson←▼P. Pedersen

79'▲G. Tryggvason←▼A. Pálsson

79'▲H. Gunnarsson←▼B. Sævarsson

Valur Reykjavik substitutes

HeimissonHaraldssonTryggvasonGunnarssonHelgasonStephensenÁgústsson