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Afturelding vs Leiknir R. — 1. Deild 2026

1. Deild1. Deild·2026
Afturelding
Afturelding
Preview
19:15
Leiknir R.
Leiknir R.
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 7:15 PM
Tournament
1. Deild · Regular Season - 14
Venue
Mosfellsbaer
73%
Afturelding
model favours
73%14%13%

Afturelding have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

3–1
likely score
82%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Afturelding73%
×Draw14%
Leiknir R.13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afturelding
3.18
Leiknir R.
1.33

Afturelding creates 139% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Afturelding
4.60
Leiknir R.
1.46

allows per match

Afturelding
1.20
Leiknir R.
1.77

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par
Leiknir R.+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Leiknir R. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw
87%
Afturelding or Leiknir R.
86%
Draw or Leiknir R.
27%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+
53%
Leiknir R. wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals
96%
Afturelding 2+ goals
82%
Afturelding 3+ goals
60%
Leiknir R. 1+ goals
74%
Leiknir R. 2+ goals
38%
Leiknir R. 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)
85%
Leiknir R. (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 4.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Leiknir R. away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 4.60 + Leiknir R. defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 3.18

Leiknir R. attack 1.46 + Afturelding defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Afturelding scores more
73%
level
14%
Leiknir R. scores more
13%

Afturelding at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 59% of Leiknir R.’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Leiknir R. score first in only 29% of matches
  • 75% of Afturelding’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 75% of Afturelding’s matches
  • Afturelding and Leiknir R. have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Afturelding
WWWWL
R.
LDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Afturelding face Leiknir R. (1. Deild)

1. Deild returns with Afturelding hosting Leiknir R.. Match starts July 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.