Afturelding 1–1 Leiknir R.: Result & Stats

Afturelding

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leiknir R.

E. Cogic 31'

O. Sowe 38'

8/8/2024

1. Deild · Round 16Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Afturelding69%

×Draw16%

Leiknir R.15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AftureldingExpected goals in this matchLeiknir R.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.30

Afturelding

2.85

Leiknir R.

1.30

Afturelding creates 119% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

4.00

creates per match

1.43

1.17

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Afturelding

4.00

Leiknir R.

1.43

allows per match

Afturelding

1.17

Leiknir R.

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par

Leiknir R.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Leiknir R. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw

85%

Afturelding or Leiknir R.

84%

Draw or Leiknir R.

31%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+

48%

Leiknir R. wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals

94%

Afturelding 2+ goals

77%

Afturelding 3+ goals

53%

Leiknir R. 1+ goals

73%

Leiknir R. 2+ goals

37%

Leiknir R. 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)

82%

Leiknir R. (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Leiknir R. away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 4.00 + Leiknir R. defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.85

Leiknir R. attack 1.43 + Afturelding defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Afturelding scores more

69%

level

16%

Leiknir R. scores more

15%

Afturelding at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. Hoti

8'

B. B. Barkarson

23'

D. Halldorsson

29'

T. Jonsson

31'

S. Bjornsson

31'

E. Cogic

38'

O. Sowe

46'

S. Hugason← B. Barkarson

67'

G. Sigmarsson

72'

A. Ragnarsson← O. Jensen

75'

D. Jónsson← R. Árnason

86'

S. Hugason

89'

B. Runolfsson

90'

S. Palsson

90+2'

D. Jonsson

90+1'

A. Jónasson← B. Runólfsson

Afturelding

Leiknir

Manager: M. Einarsson

46'▲S. Hugason←▼B. Barkarson

72'▲A. Ragnarsson←▼O. Jensen

90+1'▲A. Jónasson←▼B. Runólfsson

Afturelding substitutes

HugasonRagnarssonJónassonJóhannessonJónssonGuðjónssonSvansson

Manager: O. Kristjánsson

75'▲D. Jónsson←▼R. Árnason

Leiknir R. substitutes

JónssonAðalsteinssonArnaldarsonBogdanovicÁgústssonZivkovicBilic

Match Recap: Afturelding vs Leiknir R.

Afturelding and Leiknir R. drew 1-1 in 1. Deild on August 8, 2024.

Goals: E. Cogic (31'), O. Sowe (38').

The match was played at Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras in Mosfellsbær.

Afturelding vs Leiknir R. — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Afturelding vs Leiknir R.