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Afturelding vs Leiknir F. — 2. Deild 2018

Afturelding
Afturelding
FT
4 – 1
Leiknir F.
Leiknir F.
9/15/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 21N1-völlurinn Varmá (Mosfellsbær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Afturelding65%
×Draw19%
Leiknir F.17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afturelding
2.33
Leiknir F.
1.09

Afturelding creates 114% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

creates per match

Afturelding
2.64
Leiknir F.
1.00

allows per match

Afturelding
1.18
Leiknir F.
2.03

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par
Leiknir F.+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Leiknir F. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw
83%
Afturelding or Leiknir F.
81%
Draw or Leiknir F.
35%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+
42%
Leiknir F. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals
90%
Afturelding 2+ goals
67%
Afturelding 3+ goals
41%
Leiknir F. 1+ goals
66%
Leiknir F. 2+ goals
30%
Leiknir F. 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)
80%
Leiknir F. (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Leiknir F. away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 2.64 + Leiknir F. defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.33

Leiknir F. attack 1.00 + Afturelding defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Afturelding scores more
65%
level
19%
Leiknir F. scores more
17%

Afturelding at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Afturelding 4–1 Leiknir F.

Afturelding beat Leiknir F. 4-1 in 2. Deild on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at N1-völlurinn Varmá (Mosfellsbær).