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Afturelding vs Höttur — 2. Deild 2018

Afturelding
Afturelding
FT
2 – 2
Höttur
Höttur
7/14/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 11N1-völlurinn Varmá (Mosfellsbær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Afturelding69%
×Draw16%
Höttur14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afturelding
2.73
Höttur
1.18

Afturelding creates 131% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Afturelding
2.64
Höttur
1.18

allows per match

Afturelding
1.18
Höttur
2.82

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par
Höttur+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Höttur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw
86%
Afturelding or Höttur
84%
Draw or Höttur
31%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+
48%
Höttur wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals
93%
Afturelding 2+ goals
75%
Afturelding 3+ goals
50%
Höttur 1+ goals
69%
Höttur 2+ goals
33%
Höttur 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)
83%
Höttur (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Höttur away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 2.64 + Höttur defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.73

Höttur attack 1.18 + Afturelding defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Afturelding scores more
69%
level
16%
Höttur scores more
14%

Afturelding at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Afturelding vs Höttur

Afturelding and Höttur drew 2-2 in 2. Deild on July 14, 2018.

The match was played at N1-völlurinn Varmá (Mosfellsbær).