Afturelding 1–2 Grindavik: Result & Stats

Afturelding

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Grindavik

A. Sævarsson 49' (pen)

Ó. Hauksson 58' (pen)

S. Thasaphong 38'

8/10/2023

1. Deild · Round 16Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Afturelding57%

×Draw19%

Grindavik24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AftureldingExpected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.63

Afturelding

2.56

Grindavik

1.63

Afturelding creates 57% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 30 away

2.75

creates per match

1.50

1.75

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Afturelding

2.75

Grindavik

1.50

allows per match

Afturelding

1.75

Grindavik

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw

76%

Afturelding or Grindavik

81%

Draw or Grindavik

43%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+

37%

Grindavik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals

92%

Afturelding 2+ goals

72%

Afturelding 3+ goals

46%

Grindavik 1+ goals

80%

Grindavik 2+ goals

48%

Grindavik 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)

71%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 2.75 + Grindavik defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.56

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Afturelding defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Afturelding scores more

57%

level

19%

Grindavik scores more

24%

Afturelding at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

S. Thasaphong

49'

A. SævarssonPenalty

58'

Ó. HaukssonPenalty

66'

H. Guðmundsson← Á. Marteinsson

71'

E. Cogic

71'

A. Jónasson← B. Barkarson

71'

J. Þórhallsson← H. Sigurgeirsson

71'

D. Fjeldsted← S. Thasaphong

79'

O. Hauksson

83'

F. Jónsson← G. Lýðsson

90'

B. Runolfsson

90'

K. Konráðsson← T. Róbertsson

Afturelding

Grindavik

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Einarsson

66'▲H. Guðmundsson←▼Á. Marteinsson

71'▲A. Jónasson←▼B. Barkarson

71'▲J. Þórhallsson←▼H. Sigurgeirsson

Afturelding substitutes

GuðmundssonJónassonÞórhallssonJóhannessonCogicHugasonSigurjónsson

Manager: B. Gunnarsson

71'▲D. Fjeldsted←▼S. Thasaphong

83'▲F. Jónsson←▼G. Lýðsson

90'▲K. Konráðsson←▼T. Róbertsson

Grindavik substitutes

FjeldstedJónssonKonráðssonHávarðarsonÓlafssonÁsgeirssonHorvat