Afturelding 1–0 Fjardabyggd: Result & Stats

Afturelding

FT

1 – 0

Fjardabyggd

6/2/2018

2. Deild · Round 5N1-völlurinn Varmá (Mosfellsbær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Afturelding66%

×Draw18%

Fjardabyggd16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AftureldingExpected goals in this matchFjardabyggd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.09

Afturelding

2.42

Fjardabyggd

1.09

Afturelding creates 122% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

2.64

creates per match

1.00

1.18

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Afturelding

2.64

Fjardabyggd

1.00

allows per match

Afturelding

1.18

Fjardabyggd

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par

Fjardabyggd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Fjardabyggd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw

84%

Afturelding or Fjardabyggd

82%

Draw or Fjardabyggd

34%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+

44%

Fjardabyggd wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals

91%

Afturelding 2+ goals

69%

Afturelding 3+ goals

43%

Fjardabyggd 1+ goals

66%

Fjardabyggd 2+ goals

30%

Fjardabyggd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)

81%

Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Fjardabyggd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 2.64 + Fjardabyggd defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.42

Fjardabyggd attack 1.00 + Afturelding defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Afturelding scores more

66%

level

18%

Fjardabyggd scores more

16%

Afturelding at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff