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Afturelding vs Árborg — Cup 2019

Afturelding
Afturelding
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Árborg
Árborg
6/23/2020CupCup · 16th FinalsFagverksvöllurinn Varmá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Afturelding86%
×Draw9%
Árborg5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afturelding
3.56
Árborg
0.80

Afturelding creates 345% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Afturelding
3.53
Árborg
0.60

allows per match

Afturelding
1.00
Árborg
3.60

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par
Árborg+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Árborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw
95%
Afturelding or Árborg
91%
Draw or Árborg
14%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+
70%
Árborg wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals
97%
Afturelding 2+ goals
86%
Afturelding 3+ goals
67%
Árborg 1+ goals
55%
Árborg 2+ goals
19%
Árborg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)
95%
Árborg (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 3.53, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Árborg away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 3.53 + Árborg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.56

Árborg attack 0.60 + Afturelding defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Afturelding scores more
86%
level
9%
Árborg scores more
5%

Afturelding at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Afturelding vs Árborg

Afturelding beat Árborg 3-0 in Cup on June 23, 2020.

The match was played at Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá in Mosfellsbær.