AFSK Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh — Druha Liga - Group A 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
AFSK Kyiv12%
Livyi Bereh71%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Livyi Bereh creates 180% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
AFSK Kyiv ↓
Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
AFSK Kyiv at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches
Livyi Bereh away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
AFSK Kyiv attack 0.57 + Livyi Bereh defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.84
Livyi Bereh attack 2.56 + AFSK Kyiv defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 71%?"
Livyi Bereh at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 71% does not mean "Livyi Bereh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Kolos Kovalivka II
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Kulykiv
Polissya II
Chayka
Rebel
Livyi Bereg 2
Trostianets
Nyva Vinnytsya
Oleksandria II
Nyva Ternopil II
Atlet
Skala 1911 Stryi
Uzhhorod
Vilkhivtsi
Lisne
Bukovyna 2
Chornomorets II
Penuel
Dinaz Vyshhorod
Hirnyk-Sport
Real PharmIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
AFSK Kyiv host Livyi Bereh on Wednesday, 13 April 2022 at 00:00. The match is part of the Druha Liga - Group A 2019/2020 season.
Preview: AFSK Kyiv host Livyi Bereh
April 13, 2022: AFSK Kyiv take on Livyi Bereh in Druha Liga - Group A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
AFSK Kyiv host Livyi Bereh at Stadion AFSC Kyiv.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.