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AFSK Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

AFSK Kyiv
AFSK Kyiv
CANC
14:00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
4/17/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 25Stadion AFSC Kyiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AFSK Kyiv17%
×Draw23%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFSK Kyiv
0.81
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.76

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 117% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

creates per match

AFSK Kyiv
0.57
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.38

allows per match

AFSK Kyiv
2.14
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.05

finishing

AFSK Kyiv+0.00on par
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFSK Kyiv ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AFSK Kyiv or draw
40%
AFSK Kyiv or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
77%
Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
83%

Winning margin

AFSK Kyiv wins by 2+
5%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

AFSK Kyiv 1+ goals
56%
AFSK Kyiv 2+ goals
19%
AFSK Kyiv 3+ goals
5%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
83%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
52%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

AFSK Kyiv (draw refunded)
22%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFSK Kyiv at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFSK Kyiv attack 0.57 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.81

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.38 + AFSK Kyiv defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

AFSK Kyiv scores more
17%
level
23%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
60%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: AFSK Kyiv host Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

April 17, 2022: AFSK Kyiv take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Druha Liga - Group A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

AFSK Kyiv host Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at Stadion AFSC Kyiv.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.